1. Things could get really messy.
One of the
biggest problems about having a country exit the euro
zone is that this feat was neither planned for,
nor has ever been attempted before. Who knows what can happen? For all we know,
the situation could get even messier than Big Pippin's room - and that's saying a lot!If Greece gets booted out
of the euro zone, they'd have to revert back to using the
drachma and this alone is a daunting task. The
Greek government would have to make sure that this process goes through without
a glitch in order to prevent a flight of capital and social unrest. Now that's
a tall order considering how Greece can't seem to come up with a stable government
to begin with.
2. A bank run could take place in Europe.
Even if Greece
manages to reintroduce the drachma, a massive capital outflow from Greece is
still very likely as financial institutions and investors won't be willing to
put their money in such an unstable environment. With the rest of the PIIGS
nations being touted as next in line to exit the
euro zone, large amounts of money are likely to flow out of these countries as
well.
3. It might lead to a euro zone break-up.
Economist Nouriel Roubini pointed out that, unless Portugal and
Ireland are able to restructure their debt successfully, they could wind up
following Greece out of the euro zone. Although he mentioned that an exit by
these smaller countries probably wouldn't disrupt the entire region or the
global financial market, he also remarked that the existence of the euro zone
would be in jeopardy once the bigger debt-ridden countries such as Spain and
Italy think of leaving.On top of that, the ECB and several
euro zone countries hold a part of Greece's debt in their balance sheets, which
means that a Grexit and the debt default that could follow would force them to
realize large losses. And if the finances of the ECB or Germany are in
shambles, who would be left to save the euro zone?
4. Another "Lehman tragedy" waiting to happen?
Several analysts are also worried that a Grexit would eventually
lead to a Greek debt default, which could result in a credit freeze similar to
what happened when the Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in 2008. At that
time, banks were unable to absorb the losses and the chain of bankruptcies that
followed, eventually leading to a financial crisis.This time around, another financial
meltdown could take place if investors, banks, and other governments are forced
to accept losses from holding Greek debt. Firewalls could collapse, banks could
refuse to lend, spending could be constrained, and another global recession could be possible.Of course, Big Brother
Germany is keen on preventing a full-blown crisis from happening, with analysts
speculating that euro zone's top economy would come up with a "Grashall Plan"
or a Marshall Plan for Greece. Under this proposed mega-bailout package,
Germany and the rest of the euro zone nations could pool billions of euros in
order to buy Greece more time.Then again, another bailout package could be
accompanied by stricter austerity requirements, which Greece is neither willing
nor able to carry out. With that, it seems that a Grexit isn't a matter of if,
but rather a question of when.
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