EURUSD

 The euro found support against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, but remained close to an almost two-year low, after the European Union Commission said that stricken euro zone banks could be recapitalized through the region’s bailout fund.

EUR/USD pulled back from 1.2425, the pair’s lowest since July 1 2010, to hit 1.2466 during European early afternoon trade, still down 0.29% on the day.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2350 and resistance at 1.2504, the session high.

The EC said that the euro zone was faced with the prospect of "financial disintegration" and should use its permanent bailout fund to recapitalize banks directly, while also moving towards a banking union.

In its report on euro zone economic strategy, the EC also supported the idea of “joint debt issuance” or euro bonds, an idea which has met strong opposition from Germany.

The euro weakened broadly earlier after a poorly received auction of Italian government bonds fuelled fears that the debt crisis in the region is deepening. 

Italy’s Treasury auctioned EUR5.73 billion of 5-and10-year bonds in an auction which met with lackluster investor demand, while borrowing costs rose sharply, indicating that concerns over Spain and uncertainty over the outcome of elections in Greece next month are having a negative impact on Italy.

The euro has come under heavy selling pressure amid concerns over the situation in Spain, where rising bond yields, the growing costs of bank rescues and a recession hit economy fuelled fears that Madrid will be forced to seek an international bailout.

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds climbed to 6.7% earlier Wednesday, nearing the critical 7% threshold that preceded bailouts in Greece, Ireland and Portugal.


Later Wednesday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was to speak, while the U.S. was to release a report on pending home sales

Daily trading plan-29-May

The EURUSD Can Not Find A Bounce These Days. In Early New York Trading Rumors Were Circulating Of A Possible Announcement Of An Organized Multi-National Central Bank Intervention But These Rumors Turned Out To Be Just Rumors. Once North American Trading Began The Pair Dropped For The Remainder Of The Day. We May See A Bit Of Profit Taking Into The End Of The Week, Which Could Produce A Bounce. Daily Price Support Begins At 1.2515 But I Would Rather Focus On Long-Term Daily Support At 1.2480. The Pair Is In Deep Water Now And Any Support Zone Until The 1.2150 Is Really A Fib Extension, Such As The 1.272 Fib At 1.2388 Resent Lows. Not Great For Trading. Resistance Is At 1.2625.

Sup 1.2515 1.2480

Weekly forecast - WK 22

              EURUSD slipped to a fresh low of 1.2495. The pair may continue looking for support in wk22 as European policy makers make an attempt to buy more time. the next stop barrier at 1.2481. By identifying the last range on last Friday too be used to add to short. The H1 support at 1.2495 and Resistance at 1.2547.

EURUSD Daily Trading

Welcome back for the 2nd day of the week 21.
EURUSD close above 1.2792, Price the confirmation on H1 & H4 for the retractment level in play.That exposes the next layer of resistance in the 1.2865 to 87 region Door opens to 1.2962 above that.

4 Reasons Why Greece Should Stay in the Euro Zone

While everyone and their mommas have been spending the last few days debating whether a Grexit would be good for the euro or not, let's take some time to figure out what this scenario could mean for Greece and the financial markets as a whole. Here are some reasons why a Grexit might not be such a good idea;

1. Things could get really messy.

One of the biggest problems about having a country exit the euro zone is that this feat was neither planned for, nor has ever been attempted before. Who knows what can happen? For all we know, the situation could get even messier than Big Pippin's room - and that's saying a lot!If Greece gets booted out of the euro zone, they'd have to revert back to using the drachma and this alone is a daunting task. The Greek government would have to make sure that this process goes through without a glitch in order to prevent a flight of capital and social unrest. Now that's a tall order considering how Greece can't seem to come up with a stable government to begin with.

2. A bank run could take place in Europe.

Even if Greece manages to reintroduce the drachma, a massive capital outflow from Greece is still very likely as financial institutions and investors won't be willing to put their money in such an unstable environment. With the rest of the PIIGS nations being touted as next in line to exit the euro zone, large amounts of money are likely to flow out of these countries as well.

3. It might lead to a euro zone break-up.

Economist Nouriel Roubini pointed out that, unless Portugal and Ireland are able to restructure their debt successfully, they could wind up following Greece out of the euro zone. Although he mentioned that an exit by these smaller countries probably wouldn't disrupt the entire region or the global financial market, he also remarked that the existence of the euro zone would be in jeopardy once the bigger debt-ridden countries such as Spain and Italy think of leaving.On top of that, the ECB and several euro zone countries hold a part of Greece's debt in their balance sheets, which means that a Grexit and the debt default that could follow would force them to realize large losses. And if the finances of the ECB or Germany are in shambles, who would be left to save the euro zone?

4. Another "Lehman tragedy" waiting to happen?

Several analysts are also worried that a Grexit would eventually lead to a Greek debt default, which could result in a credit freeze similar to what happened when the Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in 2008. At that time, banks were unable to absorb the losses and the chain of bankruptcies that followed, eventually leading to a financial crisis.This time around, another financial meltdown could take place if investors, banks, and other governments are forced to accept losses from holding Greek debt. Firewalls could collapse, banks could refuse to lend, spending could be constrained, and another global recession could be possible.Of course, Big Brother Germany is keen on preventing a full-blown crisis from happening, with analysts speculating that euro zone's top economy would come up with a "Grashall Plan" or a Marshall Plan for Greece. Under this proposed mega-bailout package, Germany and the rest of the euro zone nations could pool billions of euros in order to buy Greece more time.Then again, another bailout package could be accompanied by stricter austerity requirements, which Greece is neither willing nor able to carry out. With that, it seems that a Grexit isn't a matter of if, but rather a question of when. 

WK21-EURUSD

After 15 season,11 days rally of USD push to a serious trend there but with lack of fundamental support drive to trend change.


Last Week I  did mention about 2790 that really need to be test as a sight of bullish sentiment. We pretty much touch that to the pip late in the session.The Eur bull looking for recovery and there might be a sell a bit before London open and NY will try to do something different.
Bull sentiment validation keys are on the H1 and H4. The close above 2790 frequently will confirm the trend change.A failure to close above 2790, will bring her to 2720/2735 that a good resistance before FB IPO news, last friday.

Identifying Retracements on EURUSD
A popular way to identify retracements is to use Fibonacci levels. 

For the most part, price retracements hang around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels before continuing the overall trend.
If price goes beyond these levels, it may signal that a reversal is happening. Notice how we didn't say will. As you may have figured out by now, technical analysis isn't an exact science, which means nothing certain... especially in forex markets.

Trade a major news event

To trade news, you have to first look and note the important things, such as: 

1. How strong the impact is. 

2. If there is a fake move on that news or not.

3. How your trading experience is.

4. And what your trading strategy is.

                If there is not a big difference on a news impact then forecast, than it is not suggest to trade on that impact. Because it will only give you a spike up or down (whatever the impact is) and then will turn into the normal trend. If there is an fake spike in market. For example: If the impact is strong positive for the pair and the pair is getting weak, then it is also not suggested to trading on that. Only scalping (fast in fast out) is suggested here. If you are trading experience is well enough to manage the news and trade, then you can be surely add more positions on your scalping, otherwise it’s better to stay out. A normal news trading is based on the impact number. Always wait for the news out coming and don’t enter the market, when you see the first spike (because it can be a fake spike). So wait for the numbers and have see the difference and the enter trades. And if the news supports then trend, then you can surely add more trades on that.Major news such as interest rates or non-farm payrolls tend to have high impact on the market. During the release of the data, spread might get widen and the market is volatile. Likewise, the market can be extremely volatile and you cannot spot a clear direction. It is hard to tell how long you should wait after the news, because sometimes their affects linger. I usually wait till the markets are calm, at least 10-15 minutes after the release, or till I notice a clear trend.

          More importantly is the market now setting up to provide an entry to trade as per the strategy you follow as per your rules. Or do you need to walk away.You should never try and second guess the impact of KEY news events.Sometimes opening a deal right in the time of a release is very hard because of regular requotes so it's better to open a position just before the news. But of course the presence of requotes depends on your broker.You should probably avoid major news days entirely at the beginning. Maybe do some practice account trading on news days to get a feel for how the market responds to news, but the market will respond differently in different situations and different market conditions and different news and depending how big of a surprise it is and depending on when the release time is during the day, etc. Best to stay well clear at the beginning until you are a more experienced trader.

         News is only news for the public like us. News is already old news to those who have deep pockets to purchase the news before it comes out. Luckily, these big boys leave marks on the charts that give us pointers as to what they're about to do. Volume is one of three main pillars in my trading (trending and structure are the other two). Volume and structure are marks that the big boys leave on the charts. On a particular news event, the big boys have already opened their positions beforehand and are ready to make a killing (over the next two weeks to a few months). Remember the old 2 for 1 rule. I risk 1 to make 2, but I must make 2, or else, I won't play. The big boys follow this rule and you can see this riddled throughout many forex charts, and is especially noticeable on daily gold charts. 

Financial Market Fears Overwhelm Facebook IPO Optimism

The volatility surrounding initial public offerings (IPO) is notorious; but when large companies come into the market, there is often a draw of fresh capital to get a piece of the action. Attracting new investors into the market is an especially appealing consideration now. Since the 2008 financial crisis, there has been evidence that suggests that retail level investors have not contributed significantly to strong recovery in US equities. 

Given the sell off so far this month, Facebook’s IPO presents a bright light for lost traders to find their way back – assuming they want to be drawn back in. With a listing price of $38/share, the company opened high and subsequently slid. As shares were worked in after the 11:00 AM EST initial trade, the stock showed the expected, exaggerated swings and even encouraged a boost in volatility for fell tech firm Apple.The highly publicized event couldn’t shake loose of the malaise of the broader market. 
For contrast, EURUSD follows the primary catalyst for this particular global correction. The European sovereign and banking-level crisis is clearly reflected in the world’s second most liquid currency – especially when paired against the top reserve and safe haven currency, the US dollar. With the bounce from EURUSD and follow through decline.
We could see a fundamental pressure relief for Monday or evidence that selling pressure is now self-generating for the capital markets.

EURUSD Daily Trading

Good Friday Malaysia,
For the last 3 days, EU still ranging as H4 is concern. 72, 82 and 90 still important number to look over. As fundamental they realy look at the positive news regards to the greece issue. Anyway short trend still there but breakout of the H4 support will make EU bleeding more.Asian time, EU try further to grounding but as we see her didnot get through yet.Buyer battling a 82 as a important support is concern now.
London might open to push up price but US only one can ground it further.

WK 21 profit - 84%.

EURUSD Daily Trading

Still holding my position since the 2759 didn't break through for last 3 days. So far still waiting NY Openat 9.00pm( Malaysia time).The best down trend will be EU test the 2638.

EU-12.00am, All my position on short closed since last 4 days.Good enough for this week but the oppurtuniity still there where should looking for rebound till 2790.

USD 100,000.00 Journey

           I really don't have a slightest clue why i'm here again, my own journal to my journey to forex I started trading live August 2008 where the start of world economic turnoil and i didn't have any clue at all of what i was into. I signed up for a live account (5k std acct at fxopen) after reading the article of forex in news paper. I opened an account thinking i will become rich in a quicker manner but to my dismay several days later, the market had skinned me alive.
       
    I funded my account several times and until i realized my lifetime saving was now bleeding and said to myself something must have to be done, and as soon as possible. I was sitting infront of my screen after a long day spended in factory ( Aerospace company) . I was read threads from FF and babypips School day by day until i really confident to go into live trading again. I've learned there a lot how to follow and read the market, feel the pulse and react quickly to whatever she (the market) gives. I really enjoyed experimenting and rescue tactics but i preffered cutting losses and running profits than rescuing my troops for i never really had a high success rate by doing so. until now I preffer to stick on attacks than rescuing, but if time dictates and need be, i believe i have to do so

   Now, i decide to come back to my own journey in trading after long long time ( I thought).n this blog I will share some of my thinking, discuss the fundamentals and talk about trading in general. At no time will this be a signal or mentoring service and don't contact me to offer either, I am not interested. I am a trader, that will always come first, this blog and other media I use come second during the day. There is no commercial intention to me at all. Good luck.